Astros fans were mostly disappointed by the team trading for Caleb Ferguson as their RP acquisition. Not due to the cost, but because they thought they would be getting someone better.
Discover here how Astros fans may actually be pleasantly surprised by the implementation of the Astros plan that may just fix Caleb Ferguson and make him into a very good leverage reliever.
First let me ask you to read a potentially challenging profile of Ferguson and quote his own words.
"Those things said, Ferguson is a square peg in a round hole when it comes to one of the organization’s well-known strengths. Analytics aren’t his thing."
Ferguson: “I think I’m better when I avoid the numbers.”
Ferguson can avoid the numbers as he largely did when he was with the Dodgers, BUT he needs to then listen to the Astros staff and catchers who WILL follow the numbers.
The Astros have a fairly simple plan to make relief pitchers better.
Throw more of the pitches that are effective for a pitcher (typically breaking pitches) and less of the pitches that are ineffective for a pitcher (typically 4-seam fastballs).
Improve the effectiveness of the pitcher's breaking pitches
You probably read that and say no way their plan is that simple. Well, you can add nuances and make it more complicated, but at its core that is what the Astros have done multiple times.
So, let's apply that principle and see where it leads. Here is my plan for the Astros for fixing Caleb Ferguson.
Ferguson, a LHRP, is 28, makes $2.4M AAV, is a free agent after this season, and had Tommy John surgery in 2020 and returned in 2022. Here are his basic numbers since 2022.
It is odd to see that Ferguson has reverse splits. Clearly Ferguson was better when he was with the Dodgers than he has been with the Yankees. If you read the fangraphs' article, you probably have a sense why.
Let's compare the pitch distribution in 2022-2024.
vs. RHH
Ferguson's curve in 2022 is now labeled a slurve in 2024. The cutter and slurve have both been effective in 2024. Ferguson has stopped throwing the sinker in July. Good.
vs. LHH
Against LHH Ferguson seems to be more searching for success. The only pitch that has truly been effective vs. LHH is the cutter.
Here are the velocities of Ferguson's pitches.
Per Clint-
Curve is more vertical compared to a source moving more horizontal
Slurve is is blending a slider and curveball, thrown a little harder than a curveball but moves both down and across
Curve slower and downward
Slider is harder and more across
Slurve is the middle
Ferguson MAY be better off throwing a curve again.
How can Houston fix Ferguson IF they don't change his pitches or make them more effective?
vs. RHH
If the Astros guide Ferguson to throw 10% less 4-seam Fastballs and more
Cutters (and/or more Slurves), Ferguson COULD be a far more effective pitcher vs. RHH. Throwing cutters at 28% would match his 2023 level.
The projected 0.269 xwOBA would look far closer to his 0.257 xwOBA in 2022.
vs. LHH
The answers vs. LHH are more radical. I would suggest
far less 4-seam Fastballs
no Sinkers
a lot more Cutters
If he threw to the distribution I suggest, Ferguson would project again to have the same xwOBA as 2022.
Folks, Ferguson had a 1.82 ERA/ 3.00 FIP in 2022. Fixing Caleb Ferguson just means following the typical Astros strategy.
How does Ferguson now fit in with the rest of the staff? How would Ferguson fit in with these fixes?
As he arrives to the Astros, Ferguson has one of the worst xwOBAs. His numbers vs. LHH are particularly concerning.
With this fix Ferguson would have a xwOBA that is one of the best on the staff.
Can the Astros fix Caleb Ferguson? They have done it before.
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