The 2024 Astros started the season epically bad. On 4/26/24, besieged by massive pitching injuries and a crazy difficult schedule, the Astros started 7-19. On 5/8/24, the Astros were 12-24. Since then, the Astros have gone 38-22. Over those 60 games, the team played at a 103-win pace.
Kyle Tucker has been out since 6/4/24, and the Astros have won 0.657 of their games (23-12) WITHOUT Tucker.
How good are the Astros? Do they need to trade? Who should they trade for? These are the questions we will be answering at LarryTheGM.com from now to the MLB Trade Deadline.
Step 1 Starts TODAY. Today, we do a deep dive based on the projections for the rest of the season to determine what do the Astros need by the trade deadline to make and compete in the MLB postseason.
Astros 2024 Strengths and Weaknesses
Here is our traditional heat map to look at the Astros relative strengths and weaknesses. This comes from the great Fangraphs.com website here.
You look at this chart and you see that the Astros are weakest relative to the league at 1B, SS, and SP.
The Astros are aligned with Pena at SS.
Every person related to the team and seemingly every fan is aligned that the Astros need pitching and to no one's surprise they need SP help most.
First base has been the biggest challenge for me personally. Let's start with a deep dive on that first.
First Base
Singleton was a highlight of the 1H of 2024. I detailed the Singleton story here. In summary, Singleton has been excellent when Abreu was not with the Astros and he was the primary 1B.
As a starter, Singleton hit 126 wRC+ in 177 PA as the primary 1B. If he could sustain that for an entire season, that would make him the seventh best 1B by wRC+ in the MLB.
However, the above data does show a significant issue for Singleton. Even in his good periods, Jon has NOT been good vs. LHP.
Fortunately, Dubon can be a perfect match with Singleton.
The challenge with these stats is the expected stats. Dubon has been arguably very lucky vs. LHP.
I think the Astros are going to be evaluating 1B very hard in the next 10-14 days. It is probable they will go after a RHH 1B. Who? Stay tuned. More on that this week.
I will say this. To actually make an impact at 1B, the player the Astros could/ will target at 1B needs to be able to produce at a very high level. My first pass filters are in the range of over 0.790 OPS, 120 wRC+, 0.340ish wOBA/ xwOBA.
Starting Pitcher
The Astros need Starting pitching. In the High and Lows article, we discussed the critical impact of some of the young/ new pitching and the massive injury impact to the pitching staff. This has led to some of those critical pitchers to reach near innings limits. I did the work here and was surprised that it was not as bad as I thought it would be.
In the Highs and Lows article we combined the actual performance to this point with the projected usage and performance expectations. The third column shows the projected end of the season innings expected in the MLB. This is combined with the innings of each of these pitchers in the MiLB. The total IP projected were compared with IP Max that each pitcher has had in a season in the 2021 to 2023 seasons.
The ratio is the total 2024 IP vs. the maximum IP in 2021 to 2023.
Bryan King would be expected to have the biggest increase.
Ronel Blanco has pitched 109 IP and projects to pitch another 61 IP. This would be a 36% increase in innings. The Astros will have to manage Blanco more than anyone. This puts more pressure on the team to get SP help.
Tayler Scott is another one who needs to be managed carefully with an increase of 26%.
There are a few more that might be concerns.
I was actually surprised that Brown, Arrighetti, and Bloss would not be huge concerns likely.
McCullers and Garcia have had setbacks in their rehabs. IF they were ready to go in the next week maybe one could have convinced themselves to not acquire pitching. The Astros do not have that luxury. Neither may be ready to go in time for the franchise to claim that Garcia and McCullers are the primary acquisitions at the trade deadline. It is also possible that neither now may be a viable SP this postseason.
All this is to say the Astros need at least one SP and possibly two. The challenge for the Astros in getting a SP or even two SP is that the franchise does NOT have a ton of tradeable assets. We will address this tomorrow.
There is another complication- the 40-man roster. The table below shows the 45 players who would be on the 40-man roster if the team traded for two pitchers and assuming McCullers, Garcia, and Murfee return from the 60-day IL.
A way to consider this is to assume the Astros are in the Post Season. Who are the 12-13 pitchers one would want on the ALDS/ Wildcard roster? I think it would look something like this.
France would likely be moved to the 60-day IL when a roster spot is needed. The players in blue would be possible candidates to be traded or DFAd. More on that soon.
Next time we will look at who are the players the Astros could trade to get the SP and 1B they need. We will balance return vs. who is viewed as a critical part to the Astros future.
Statistics from Fangraphs.com and Baseballsavant.com.
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