Yesterday, I published a roster analysis classifying the Astros Roster as The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly.
Last Year, I defined a measurement I called the Total Batting Index (TBI). I applied that metric to the Astros 2024 Wild Card team here.
This year, I am publishing the pitching equivalent Total Pitching Index (TPI).
TPI = Total Batters Faced * (100 - FIP-)
The purpose of TPI is to highlight the relative biggest impact pitchers on the Astros this year. This data will not necessarily surprise you, but it is more likely help quantify the beliefs you already have.
Uncover with me now the Astros 2024 Total Pitching Index (TPI) and see how it reveals the pivotal impact pitchers, shedding light on the team's early pitching struggles and injuries and their impact.
I left the color from above article in this TPI data table so you can see how "The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly" labels hold.
The "Good" players (in green) that are lower in this list were good defensively.
Looking through this list you get the very real sense of how dependent the postseason pitching will be on the top players.
As a team the Astros TPI (below) is ONLY 3,271, but the top 3 SP (Valdez, Brown, and Kikuchi) and 3 RP (Pressly, Abreu, and Hader) are 43,187. King and Ferguson add another 6,465.
These Eight are truly the pitchers the Astors will use in any leverage situations in the Wild Card and ALDS. We will compare these top 8 to the equivalent top pitchers on the Tigers in the ALWC Preview.
My guess for the full ALWC roster is to the right.
How do the Astros compare as a team in TPI?
The Astros were sixteenth in TPI as they were in FIP-. The Astros were terrible early and have been excellent since May.
As we showed above and in "The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly" the Astros had very distinct good and bad pitchers. Let's look at all of the pitchers in the MLB with more than 20 IP (541 pitchers total).
This list is long. Don't try to see the names. Just look for the Astros in orange. Remember that the real issue here is being at the top (or bottom) of this list.
The Astros on the list include:
Valdez - 18th - 96.7 Percentile
Kikuchi - 28th - 94.9 Percentile
Brown - 59th - 89.2 Percentile
Pressly - 96th - 82.4 Percentile
Abreu - 116th - 78.8 Percentile
Hader - 141st - 74.2 Percentile
King - 147th - 73.1 Percentile
Ferguson - 186th - 65.9 Percentile
Dubin - 212th - 61.2 Percentile- OUT?
Scott - 307th - 43.8 Percentile- IL?
Blanco - 333rd - 39.0 Percentile
Neris - 344th - 37.0 Percentile
Arrighetti - 352nd - 35.5 Percentile
Javier - 366th - 33.0 Percentile- IL
Ort - 373rd - 31.7 Percentile- Out
Martinez - 409th - 25.1 Percentile- Out
France - 421st- 22.9 Percentile- IL
Verlander - 473rd - 13.4 Percentile
Montero - 501st - 8.2 Percentile- DFA/ AAA
Could the Astros have Ryan Gusta as an October surprise on the roster? I don't think so.
Here are the pitchers I THINK the Astros will carry on the ALWC roster.
What does it all mean?
The top 6 to 8 pitchers will determine the success or failure of the Astros in the postseason and THEY have been great in general.
The Astros TPI was tanked early by subpar pitchers who are now gone, injured, or should not have a leverage role in the ALWC
The Astros pitching is better than their TPI score reflects.
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